Mortgage ToolkitHow to read this history
Each point on the chart is a weekly average, matching the cadence of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey that Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) publishes from. Zooming to a longer window (1-year or 5-year) smooths out short-term noise and makes the broader rate cycle easier to see; zooming to 3 or 6 months highlights the most recent trend. Use the 30-Year / 15-Year toggle above the chart to isolate a single series, and the CSV button to export the exact data currently shown.
What influences mortgage rates over time
Long-run rate cycles generally track inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy. Periods of high inflation or aggressive rate hikes tend to push mortgage rates up; periods of disinflation or rate cuts tend to bring them down, though mortgage rates typically lag Fed decisions by weeks to months since they're priced off longer-term bond yields, not the Fed's overnight rate directly.
Beyond the macro cycle, employment data and consumer inflation reports can cause short-term jumps within a single week, which is why the chart can look noisier at the 3-month zoom than at the 1-year or 5-year zoom. Widening the window filters out that week-to-week noise and shows the underlying trend more clearly.
Using historical data to make a decision today
A rate history chart is most useful for context, not prediction — it can't tell you where rates are headed, but it can tell you whether today's rate is high, low, or roughly typical relative to recent years. If you locked in a rate a few years ago and rates have since moved, use the refinancing break-even guide to see whether switching makes sense given your remaining term and closing costs. If you're shopping for a new mortgage, compare the current rate against your own quote with the rates hub above, or plug it directly into the mortgage calculator.